Diamond Equity Research Releases Update Note on The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (Nasdaq:TMCR)

New York, Sept. 04, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Diamond Equity Research LLC, an equity research firm with a focus on small capitalization public companies has released an update note on The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (Nasdaq:TMCR). The research summary below is from a report commissioned by The Metals Royalty Company Inc. and produced by Diamond Equity Research.The update report includes detailed information on The Metals Royalty Company’s business model, industry overview, financials, and risks.

The full research report is available below.

The Metals Royalty Company Update Note September 2026

Highlights from the report include:

• Additional Mesabi Royalty Acquisition Doubles TMCR’s Interest to 2.0% and Establishes Potential US$22–26 Million Annual Royalty Stream: TMCR completed the acquisition of an additional 1.0% Index-Priced Gross Overriding Production Royalty with a Revenue Floor over the Mesabi Metallics iron ore project, doubling its total interest to 2.0%. Based on assumed production of 7.28 Mtpa over a 23-year mine life, TMCR estimates annual royalty revenue of approximately US$22 million, rising to approximately US$26 million at the contemplated 8.5 Mtpa capacity, effectively doubling the US$11–13 million potential from its original 1.0% interest. The acquisition comes immediately ahead of expected commercial production, with Mesabi approximately 99% complete and already transitioning to active mining following its first 66-hole production blast, which fractured approximately 211,000 tons of ore and enabled ore haulage. First-line commissioning is targeted for 3Q 2026 and first production for 4Q 2026, while the project is indicated to be fully financed through first production. The acquisition was funded through a US$165 million package comprising US$140 million of 8.0% convertible senior secured second-lien notes and a US$25 million first-lien senior secured term loan from Macquarie, generating approximately US$150.9 million of net proceeds after discounts, fees, and expenses. The notes carry an 8.0% coupon, structured as 6.0% cash/2.0% PIK in year one, 7.0% cash/1.0% PIK in year two, and 8.0% cash thereafter, and are convertible at US$8.6625 per share, a 37.5% premium to the US$6.30 reference price, implying approximately 16.2 million shares upon full equity conversion, although settlement may be in cash, shares, or both. The notes rank behind the Macquarie facility and are secured by second-lien claims over substantially all assets, including the Mesabi royalties. The Macquarie loan bears Term SOFR plus 4.0%, matures in 24 months with a 12-month extension option, and includes 500,000 five-year warrants exercisable at a 37.5% premium. TMCR also increased the equity consideration to Ironclad to US$27.5 million from US$7.5 million, issuing 4.37 million shares and reducing the cash component. In aggregate, vendor shares, Macquarie warrants, and potential note conversion represent approximately 21.1 million shares of current or potential equity issuance. Overall, the transaction materially expands TMCR’s exposure to a near-production U.S. iron ore royalty and strengthens its dual-asset platform alongside its 2.0% NORI royalty, while increasing leverage, financing costs, refinancing requirements, and potential dilution, making Mesabi royalty generation increasingly important for debt servicing and deleveraging.      
  
• First Production Blast De-Risks Mesabi Development and Strengthens Visibility on TMCR Royalty Outlook: The Mesabi Metallics project has achieved a key development milestone with its first production blast, marking the transition from construction toward active mining and production. The 66-hole blast fractured approximately 211,000 tons of ore and opened the first ramp into the bottom of the pit, enabling 400-ton haul trucks to commence ore haulage, with weekly blasting expected to continue as the mine advances toward full-scale output. The milestone represents an on-schedule step toward first pellet production and is particularly significant for TMCR, as the extracted ore will be processed into DR-grade pellets subject to its 2.0% index-priced Gross Overriding Production Royalty with a Revenue Floor. TMCR estimates annual royalty cash-flow potential of approximately US$22 million at 7.28 Mtpa over a 23-year mine life, rising to approximately US$26 million at the contemplated 8.5 Mtpa capacity. The commencement of ore extraction and planned continuation of weekly blasting provide greater visibility into the transition toward sustained mining activity and, ultimately, TMCR’s first royalty revenue, while the project’s expected contribution to U.S. employment, domestic steel supply, shipbuilding, and the defense industrial base further enhances its strategic relevance. Although the blast does not yet represent pellet production or commercial royalty generation, it materially reduces development and execution risk and strengthens visibility toward 3Q 2026 commissioning, 4Q 2026 first production, and subsequent royalty cash-flow generation.
• EPC Nears Completion with Mesabi Approximately 99% Complete, Fully Financed Through First Production and on Track for 3Q 2026 Commissioning: Construction progress at Mesabi Metallics continues to de-risk TMCR's 2.0% gross overriding royalty interest, with overall project completion reaching approximately 99%, while first-line commissioning is targeted for 3Q 2026 and first production for 4Q 2026. The near-completion of engineering and procurement, with all long-lead items on site and all 110 Quality Assurance Plans approved, materially limits remaining supply-chain and engineering risks, while mechanical completion across virtually all buildings, concurrent advancement of electrical and controls infrastructure, and track installation at the Wagon Loading Station indicate that the project is transitioning from construction into commissioning. Importantly, based on information provided by Mesabi Metallics, the project is fully financed through first production, while Essar Group’s more than $2 billion of equity investment and 50-year track record in developing and operating large-scale industrial assets provide additional support for execution. The combination of near-complete engineering and procurement, advancing construction, and financing through first production provides increasing confidence in the Mesabi development reaching TMCR’s targeted 2026 commissioning timeline.     
• Valuation: TMCR’s investment proposition has strengthened following the completion of its acquisition of an additional 1.0% royalty interest in Mesabi Metallics, doubling the company’s total Mesabi royalty exposure to 2.0% and materially increasing the scale of its near-term cash-flow opportunity. The transaction strengthens TMCR’s potential cash-flow profile by increasing participation in an asset that is now approaching first production, but the benefit is partly offset by the higher leverage, financing burden, and dilution associated with funding the acquisition. As a result, the incremental value created by the Mesabi royalty will depend less on simply reaching production and more on Mesabi achieving its targeted throughput, sustaining favorable DR pellet pricing, and generating sufficient after-tax cash flow to justify the acquisition cost and associated financing. NORI continues to provide longer-duration upside, although its contribution remains more dependent on permitting and commercialization milestones. Following the transaction, our valuation framework has been revised to reflect the enlarged Mesabi royalty interest, an updated capital structure, normalized corporate expenses and taxes, and revised diluted share assumptions. We continue to value TMCR using a blended approach combining the NPV of projected Mesabi and NORI-D royalty cash flows at a 7.0% discount rate with an EV/Sales-based GPCM framework. Going forward, the key valuation sensitivities will be Mesabi’s production ramp, long-term DR pellet pricing, corporate cost discipline, deleveraging, and progress toward NORI commercialization. Incorporating these revised assumptions results in an illustrative equity valuation of US$17.50 per share, contingent on successful execution by the company.

About The Metals Royalty Company Inc.

The Metals Royalty Company Inc. is a British Columbia-based critical-minerals royalty company with a 2.0% royalty interest in each of the NORI polymetallic nodule project in the Pacific Ocean and the Mesabi Metallics iron ore project in Minnesota.

About Diamond Equity Research

Diamond Equity Research is an equity research and corporate access firm focused on small capitalization companies. Diamond Equity Research is an approved sell-side provider on major institutional investor platforms.

For more information, visit https://www.diamondequityresearch.com.

Disclosures:

Diamond Equity Research LLC (“DER”) is being compensated by The Metals Royalty Company (the “Company”) for producing research materials regarding the Company and its securities, which is intended to subsidize the costs associated with the preparation of the report and the ongoing monitoring of the security; however, the views expressed in the report reflect those of Diamond Equity Research. As of 09/04/26 the issuer had paid us $50,000 for our company sponsored research services, which commenced 02/13/26 and is billed annually upfront, which could present a conflict of interest. Additional compensation may be received in future years if the engagement is renewed. Diamond Equity Research LLC may be compensated for non-research related services, including presenting at Diamond Equity Research investment conferences, press releases and other additional services. The non-research related service cost is dependent on the company, but usually do not exceed $5,000. The issuer has not paid us for non-research related services as of 09/04/2026. Issuers are not required to engage us for these additional services. Additional fees may have accrued since then. Although Diamond Equity Research company sponsored reports are based on publicly available information and although no investment recommendations are made within our company sponsored research reports, given the small capitalization nature of the companies we cover we have adopted an internal trading procedure around the public companies by whom we are engaged, with investors able to find such policy on our website public disclosures page. This report and press release do not consider individual circumstances and does not take into consideration individual investor preferences.This report is based on information we consider reliable, including the subject of the report.This report does not explicitly or implicitly affirm that the information contained in this document is accurate and/or comprehensive, and as such should not be relied on in such capacity. All information contained within this report is subject to change without any formal or other notice provided. Statements within this report may constitute forward-looking statements, these statements involve many risk factors and general uncertainties around the business, industry, and macroeconomic environment. Investors need to be aware of the high degree of risk in small capitalization equities including the complete potential loss of their investment. Investors can find various risk factors in the update report and in the respective financial filings for The Metals Royalty Company, which may not be comprehensive.  Please review update report attached for full disclosures.

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• The Metals Royalty Company Update Note September 2026

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