Society of Actuaries Explores the Effects of Wildfire-Related Air Pollution on Diseases and Mortality

CHICAGO, Dec. 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute published two studies examining the health impacts of wildfire-related air pollution on mortality and morbidity. The Impact of Wildfire-Related and Environmental Air Pollution on Morbidity investigates the effects of air pollution, and particularly of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on four diseases: circulatory conditions, mental and behavioral disorders, neoplasms and respiratory conditions. Modeling the Impact of Wildfire-Related Air Pollution on Mortality provides frameworks for actuaries and researchers to better understand and model mortality due to air pollution influenced by wildfire smoke and other factors.

“Both studies seek to better understand the relationships between health and mortality and wildfire-related air pollution,” said Kara Clark, FSA, MAAA, Senior Research Actuary, SOA Research Institute. “These environmental risks could exacerbate existing uncertainties for health care planning, utilization, and premium pricing. The primary focus of these studies is to develop frameworks for modeling and quantifying these effects.”

Some of the findings from The Impact of Wildfire-Related and Environmental Air Pollution on Morbidity include:

The effects of exposure to PM2.5 are more significant when combined with extreme heat. The combined near-term and lagged effects from exposure to fine particulate matter in air pollution and extreme heat are responsible for 2.3% to 8.6% of the prevalence of the conditions studied, which is higher than the impact of COVID-19 during the pandemic and its aftermath.
Exposure impacts are persistent and long-term. The effects of PM2.5 exposure during wildfire season can last for months and sometimes years after the event, especially for circulatory conditions and mental and behavioral disorders.
Exposure to PM2.5 is a material driver of mental and behavioral disorders. The combined effects of exposure to PM 2.5 and extreme heat accounted for 6.7% to 7.8% of mental health and behavioral disorder prevalence.

The study shows that the impacts of exposure to wildfire-related air pollution on disease are not uniform across populations. Communities with limited health care access, higher social vulnerability, or preexisting chronic conditions tended to experience greater health burdens during wildfire and heat events, underscoring the importance of targeted, data-driven public health interventions.

Impact on Health Insurers

The morbidity study suggests health insurers may consider adjusting how they assess risk, design benefits, and engage with stakeholders. Excess morbidity related to wildfire-related air pollution and extreme heat could place additional pressure on hospitals, emergency rooms and mental health services. Different populations and communities may require targeted mitigation efforts.

Insurers could develop new strategies in how they engage with provider networks and policyholders in the face of climate-related disruptions. They may also look into innovative risk modeling to integrate climate and environmental data into actuarial calculations. For example, predictive analytics and machine learning may be used to forecast climate-driven health care utilization patterns and refine pricing strategies.

Modeling Approaches for Life Insurers

Modeling the Impact of Wildfire-Related Air Pollution on Mortality report finds that, despite the indirect, delayed effect of air pollution on mortality, three models can serve as valuable tools for assessing environmental risks:

Stochastic Mortality Framework
Prevalence Scenario Approach
WHO AirQ+ Methodology

The study identified limitations for all three models, but they were still valuable in informing stress testing, pricing adjustments and the quantification of climate-related mortality shocks.

Study Methodologies
The morbidity study applied machine learning and statistical methods to health care claims data, climate data and community-level socioeconomic data. The algorithms used were able to capture complex interactions between PM2.5 (wildfire particulate matter), social determinants of health and morbidity more comprehensively than traditional methods.

The mortality study reviews existing literature and modeling approaches. It then introduces three distinct and complimentary models for quantifying the impact of wildfire-related air pollution on mortality. These include a stochastic mortality model based on a modification of the Lee-Carter model that integrates climate variables. The study also assesses the use of disease prevalence scenarios that can be used for projecting long-term mortality and demonstrates the World Health Organization’s method for estimating mortality due to pollutants such as PM2.5 using the AirQ+ tool. A key learning from this study is that there is no one-size-fits-all model, and each may have particular use cases based on available data, time horizons, context, and fit.

Explore The Impact of Wildfire-Related and Environmental Air Pollution on Morbidity and Modeling the Impact of Wildfire-Related Air Pollution on Mortality to learn more about the findings and methodologies. See other consumer-oriented climate findings on the SOA Research Institute’s Consumer Climate Hub.

About the SOA
With roots dating back to 1889, the Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the world’s largest actuarial professional organization with more than 34,000 actuaries as members. Through research and education, the SOA’s mission is to advance actuarial knowledge and enhance actuaries’ ability to provide expert advice and relevant solutions for financial, business and societal challenges. The SOA’s vision is for actuaries to be the leading professionals in measuring and managing risk. To learn more, visit soa.org.

Contact:
Michael Nowak
mnowak@soa.org

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